Is the world prepared to tackle global crises? The simple answer is: NO! This blog looks at who pays the price for this failure, and how our development and global cooperation model must change.
End of Covid19? Not for most people…
Despite many media headlines reporting “the end of Covid19”, Covid19 is here to stay. It will, however, mainly continue to wreak havoc and cause thousands of deaths in poorer countries, which do not have access to Covid19 vaccines (see Table 1 below).
For rich countries, the tidal wave of Covid19 has washed over in two or three “waves”, which with vaccines will soon recede into history as “the 2020/21 Covid crisis”.
For poorer countries – just as with HIV/AIDS, or measles – Covid19 waves and deaths will continue – according to some estimates for at least another 57 years.
Table 1: Share of people who have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine
Covid19 has again shown that our current development and global cooperation model are not set up to tackle global crises and inequalities. Instead, inequalities have increased.
For example, less than 1 percent of vaccines have gone to low- and middle-income countries, resulting in what has been called “vaccine apartheid“.
Income inequalities have also increased, with vaccination profits resulting in nine new vaccine billionaires.
The mismatch in available funds and funds used to try to end the global pandemic are striking: The global healthcare market is estimated to be at USD 12 trillion p.a. The Covid19 response by countries has cost over USD 11 trillion. But only USD 18 billion out of 38 billion (as of 28 May) has been raised for global vaccines, diagnostics and treatment.
Covid19 vs climate change
Looking at climate change, the situation looks strikingly similar to Covid19.
Climate change primarily impacts poor countries, which have less funds to invest in (still costly) alternative energy, or mitigate the impact (e.g. clean air filters, flood damns).
This inequality can also be seen in economic terms (see Table 2 below). By the year 2100, many countries in the Southern hemisphere will see losses of up to 100% in GDP, compared to countries in the North that will see gains of up to 200%.
Table 2: Economic impact of climate change
With global warming and glacier melting accelerating at a faster pace than expected, these inequalities will also grow wider, faster.
Unlike Covid19, the climate change waves impacting primarily poor countries will eventually result in a global tidal wave that will threaten our planet and entire existence.
Most leaders and citizens in rich countries are hedging their bets that this will only occur after their own lifetimes.
Whereas the long-term impact of Covid19 inequality is primarily economic/geographic, the long-term impact of climate change inequality is intergenerational, with the cost born by younger and future generations.
The craziest piece in this puzzle is that we could fairly easily – and as Covid19 again shows much more cheaply – end these pandemics, for everyone.
But we don’t.
Our current development and global cooperation system. What needs to change?
The current multilateral development system is based on rich countries (primarily G7 members) making charitable donations to support poorer countries.
As the above-mentioned discrepancy between Covid19 donations (USD 16 billion) vs national rescue packages (USD 11 trillion), and continued large funding gaps for poor countries show, global cooperation has failed during the largest pandemic in a century.
This does not bode well for climate change, “the bigger pandemic“.
The current development and global cooperation model must therefore be urgently and radically reformed:
1. Financing beyond ODA: Pooled financing for global public goods (health, climate, etc.) primarily through taxation must be prioritised over post-catastrophe fundraised aid. Development cooperation financing must be delinked from aid dependency from just a handful of donors.
2. Tackle fragmentation: The existing development architecture must be streamlined and strengthened, merging and preferably terminating underperforming institutions. Well-performing institutions must be strengthened but kept lean, and new initiatives should only be founded once others are closed down or terminated. Expertise and capacity should be located and drawn from at the level closest to communities.
3. Place equity at center: The “last” must come “first” to tackle inequalities (both globally and nationally), and tax havens/exemptions must be addressed.
(This blog is based on a talk given at the Hertie Summit).
Katri Bertram 